Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- Cade Otton has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (86.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (63.9%).
- The model projects Cade Otton to accumulate 5.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- This year, the shaky Colts defense has been gouged for a colossal 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-slowest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per snap.
- With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton has been as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the league in space.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.10 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Indianapolis’s group of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
