Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-148) after it opened @ 64.5 (-119).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- In this game, Brandon Aiyuk is expected by the projection model to finish in the 81st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.3 targets.
- Brandon Aiyuk has accrued many more air yards this year (99.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more prominently featured in his team’s pass attack.
- Brandon Aiyuk has totaled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (87.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Cons
- With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
