Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Dolphins vs. Texans
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.4 plays per game.
- Brandin Cooks has been a less important option in his offense’s passing attack this season (22.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (28.2%).
- Brandin Cooks has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
- Brandin Cooks has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
