Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 77.5 (-115) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 97th percentile among WRs with 10.8 targets.
- With a high 31.5% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown rates as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (77.0).
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a massive 8.5-point favorite this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the imposing Green Bay Packers defense has given up a paltry 134.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-fewest in football.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards
104
Receiving Yards
