Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-105/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-130) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to total 7.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Allen Lazard has posted quite a few more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Allen Lazard’s 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 28.8.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Allen Lazard’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.9% to 61.4%.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards