Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Panthers offensive strategy to skew 6.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
The model projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Adam Thielen has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Titans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards