Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-129/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 79.5 (+100) after it opened @ 82.5 (-113).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-most plays in the league have been called by the Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
In this game, A.J. Brown is predicted by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 10.0 targets.
After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has posted big gains this year, currently averaging 126.0 per game.
A.J. Brown has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (98.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the tough Bills pass defense has allowed the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a meager 3.0 YAC.
The Bills cornerbacks project as the 6th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards