Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Bills
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-129/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 79.5 (+100) after it opened @ 82.5 (-113).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 5th-most plays in the league have been called by the Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
- In this game, A.J. Brown is predicted by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 10.0 targets.
- After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has posted big gains this year, currently averaging 126.0 per game.
- A.J. Brown has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (98.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the tough Bills pass defense has allowed the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a meager 3.0 YAC.
- The Bills cornerbacks project as the 6th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
