Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-115) after it opened @ 250.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 302.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a remarkable improvement in his passing proficiency over last year’s 253.0 figure.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 69.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteable growth in his passing accuracy over last year’s 64.0% rate.
Tua Tagovailoa grades out as one of the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 8.73 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 97th percentile.
The Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in football.

Cons

This week’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
This year, the tough New York Jets defense has surrendered the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a paltry 6.6 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards