Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-115) after it opened @ 250.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 302.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a remarkable improvement in his passing proficiency over last year’s 253.0 figure.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 69.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteable growth in his passing accuracy over last year’s 64.0% rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa grades out as one of the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 8.73 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 97th percentile.
- The Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in football.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
- This year, the tough New York Jets defense has surrendered the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a paltry 6.6 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
