Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Taylor Heinicke from EV Insight

Taylor HeinickePassing Yards

Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 211.5 (+100) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 2nd-most yards in the league (268.0 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, allowing 8.09 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in football.

Cons

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 29.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.0% to 60.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
188
Passing Yards