Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Commanders vs. Falcons
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 211.5 (+100) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 2nd-most yards in the league (268.0 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, allowing 8.09 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in football.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 29.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.0% to 60.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
188
Passing Yards
188
Passing Yards
