Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-115) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Russell Wilson’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 59.3% to 68.9%.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive approach to skew 1.4% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 26.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
183
Passing Yards