Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Broncos vs. Browns
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-115) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Russell Wilson’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 59.3% to 68.9%.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive approach to skew 1.4% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 26.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
183
Passing Yards
183
Passing Yards
