Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 222.5 (-121) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
- The Indianapolis Colts defensive ends project as the worst unit in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 189.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.24 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
