NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Hayden Hurst has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (44.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accumulate 5.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the weakest TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 16th percentile.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
