NFL

Bets

November 22, 2023

Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 244.5 (-114) after it opened @ 240.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 133.6 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
With an outstanding total of 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in football (just 211.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.
The Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 6.29 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards