Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 201.5 (-115) after it opened @ 193.5 (-115).

Pros

This game’s line implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
Justin Fields has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (189.0) this season than he did last season (149.0).
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The model projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
In this contest, Justin Fields is expected by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 29.7.
Justin Fields profiles as one of the worst precision passers in the league this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 19th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards