Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 256.5 (+105) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Josh Allen to throw 37.6 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
The Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.9 per game) this year.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.
Josh Allen has been one of the best passers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 270.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Cons

With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a feeble 3.7 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards