Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 256.5 (+105) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect Josh Allen to throw 37.6 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
- The Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.9 per game) this year.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.
- Josh Allen has been one of the best passers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 270.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a feeble 3.7 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
