Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 278.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 278.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 38.3 passes per game this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Joe Burrow has passed for quite a few more yards per game (287.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.05 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
