Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 252.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 252.5 (-110) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- Jared Goff has attempted 38.2 throws per game this year, grading out in the 89th percentile among quarterbacks.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Jared Goff checks in as one of the top quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 272.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a massive 8.5-point favorite this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 211.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Green Bay’s group of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards
281
Passing Yards
