Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 259.5 (-101) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per snap.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Geno Smith has been among the leading QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 247.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-most yards in football (251.0 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards