Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 237.5 (-142) after it opened @ 238.5 (-117).
Pros
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average).
- Geno Smith’s 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a meaningful decline in his passing accuracy over last season’s 69.4% figure.
- This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a feeble 6.7 yards.
- This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a paltry 4.1 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards
257
Passing Yards
