Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 237.5 (-142) after it opened @ 238.5 (-117).

Pros

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.

Cons

The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average).
Geno Smith’s 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a meaningful decline in his passing accuracy over last season’s 69.4% figure.
This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a feeble 6.7 yards.
This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a paltry 4.1 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards