Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-115) after it opened @ 243.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the projection model to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 59.9 per game on average).
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Gardner Minshew’s 64.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteable progression in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 58.0% mark.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
