Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 252.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 252.5 (-120) after it opened @ 244.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Derek Carr has attempted 36.5 throws per game this year, checking in at the 76th percentile among QBs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-most yards in football (250.0 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 61.7%.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
