Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- In this game, C.J. Stroud is projected by the projections to have the 9th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.6.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- C.J. Stroud profiles as one of the least accurate passers in the NFL this year with a 62.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 25th percentile.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards
302
Passing Yards
