Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-130) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- Brock Purdy has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (266.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
- Brock Purdy’s 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial growth in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 66.4% figure.
- Brock Purdy’s 9.68 adjusted yards-per-target this season represents a substantial progression in his throwing efficiency over last season’s 8.0% figure.
- This year, the deficient Seahawks defense has allowed a colossal 259.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in football.
Cons
- With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
- In this game, Brock Purdy is anticipated by the model to total the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 30.6.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
