Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to throw 36.5 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.
- Baker Mayfield has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (233.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Cons
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-slowest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per snap.
- The Colts defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Indianapolis’s group of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards
265
Passing Yards
