Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
49ers vs. Saints
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-135) after it opened @ 216.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Andy Dalton has passed for quite a few more yards per game (214.0) this season than he did last season (183.0).
- The New Orleans Saints O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 194.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.27 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
