Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
- The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Aaron Rodgers’s passing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.6% to 66.2%.
- Aaron Rodgers’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a mere 7.02 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 mark last year.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 192.0 per game) versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
