Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Aaron Rodgers’s passing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.6% to 66.2%.
Aaron Rodgers’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a mere 7.02 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 mark last year.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 192.0 per game) versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards