Week 12 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The FTN Bets moneyline underdogs just keep rolling!

Our Eagles +130 ML hit in a big way on Monday Night Football, giving us three straight wins on the season. Let’s run it back for Week 12.

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 12 of the 2023 season!

Week 12 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Cleveland +2.5 at Denver

(+116, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Broncos have played very well, winning four straight games including against the Chiefs and at the Bills. That ends in Week 12 against the elite defense of Cleveland. 

The Browns rank first overall in defensive pressure rate, per FTN Data. They will get pressure against Denver quarterback Russell Wilson, which is the primary way to disrupt this Broncos attack. Wilson ranks first in throws under pressure among all quarterbacks with at least 100 pressures faced. His 42.1% pressure rate faced is substantially higher than Seattle’s Geno Smith (34.8%), Kirk Cousins (32.6%), Zach Wilson (31.9%), or even Sam Howell (30.4%). This is why Wilson’s aDOT of 6.8 yards ranks in the bottom five of quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. 

The Cleveland rush defense is also superb, ranking first in run defense DVOA. Coming off an impressive win over Pittsburgh with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, the Browns are now just ½ game behind Baltimore. Thompson-Robinson brings the same dual-threat option as Joshua Dobbs did, with a better defense than Minnesota. The Broncos struggled against Minnesota and needed a last-minute touchdown to secure that victory. 

The final piece of this pick? Russell Wilson has been terrible as a home favorite over the last few seasons. Per BetLabs, Wilson is just 1-10 ATS in his last 11 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. In just his games with the Broncos, Wilson is 1-6 ATS, including last week’s loss as a slight favorite to Minnesota. 

Our FTN Bets Model gives Cleveland +2.5 a 61.7% probability of winning, equating to a 9.3% edge. I’ll take the better-balanced Browns roster on the moneyline against a hot Denver team that is due for some negative regression. 

The Pick

Browns ML (+116)