Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-125) after it opened @ 67.5 (-117).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
- The leading projections forecast Travis Etienne to notch 18.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Travis Etienne has been a more integral piece of his offense’s running game this season (67.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (51.6%).
- Travis Etienne has picked up 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (90th percentile).
Cons
- The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.8% run rate.
- The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.
- Travis Etienne’s 3.7 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates an impressive regression in his running talent over last year’s 5.1 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
