Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-136/+104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+104) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
- Our trusted projections expect Davante Adams to accumulate 11.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- Davante Adams’s 83.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 75.0.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.1%) vs. WRs this year (72.1%).
Cons
- The model projects the Raiders to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% pass rate.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
- Davante Adams has notched quite a few less air yards this year (119.0 per game) than he did last year (124.0 per game).
- Davante Adams’s 71.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 89.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
