Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-136/+104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+104) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
Our trusted projections expect Davante Adams to accumulate 11.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Davante Adams’s 83.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 75.0.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.1%) vs. WRs this year (72.1%).

Cons

The model projects the Raiders to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% pass rate.
The model projects the Raiders to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
Davante Adams has notched quite a few less air yards this year (119.0 per game) than he did last year (124.0 per game).
Davante Adams’s 71.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 89.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards