Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for many more yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

Cons

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The New York Jets defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.18 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards