Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After an electric night in Madison Square Garden a week ago, the UFC heads back to Vegas this week to feature the hard-hitting Derrick Lewis and the big man from Moldova, Sergei Spivak. Lewis is currently 2-3 in his last five fights and seems to be declining, as the 38-year-old is on a rare two-fight losing streak and looking to get back in the win column before year end. Spivak is 4-1 in his last five fights and is looking to keep the current win streak alive regardless of his opponent.
The co-main event features another fighter on a two-fight losing streak as Ion Cutelaba faces the Fortis MMA product Kennedy Nzechukwu. UFC 281 would be a tough act to follow for any event, but nonetheless it’s another fight card, and as always I will be breaking down my favorite fights and giving you my best bets for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Lewis vs. Spivak Odds
Derrick Lewis +160, Sergei Spivak -200
Anytime Lewis steps into the octagon, fans expect fireworks and a spectacular knockout. Since joining the UFC, Lewis has been known for his fight-ending KO power and his funny personality. Lewis has reached heights that not many fighters reach in their careers. Lewis has fought everyone in the top 15 and has challenged a champion twice. Now at 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, Lewis has his back against the wall as he nears the end of his career with a possible loss this weekend. Lewis has always been vulnerable when fighting wrestlers and if he can’t find the knockout early in fights, his gas tank can fade and has faded in the past. Spivak is a hard-hitting heavyweight who should have no problem using his wrestling to find a win if he avoids the power shots coming from Lewis. Spivak has never been a household name in the UFC, but the heavyweight is still dangerous and usually uses his wrestling to get opponents to the ground and find finishes via sub or ground and pound. From a betting perspective I will be siding with Spivak and expect him to find a finish and retire the black beast this weekend.
The Bet: Sergei Spivak by KO/TKO or submission -135
Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba Odds
Ion Cutelaba +145, Kennedy Nzechukwu -175
Currently on a two-fight losing streak, Cutelaba looks to get back in the win column when he faces Nzechukwu in the co-main event Saturday. Cutelaba is currently 1-3-1 in his last five fights, with his last two ending in the first round by knockout. Cutelaba averages 7:38 of fight time, and with 10 first-round finishes on his record, I don’t expect him to look to the judges for resolution. Cutelaba historically has been very aggressive and whether he’s getting finished or finding a finish, he looks to press the action from the moment the ref says go. Ion, averages 4.61 significant strikes landed per minute at a 42% accuracy rate. He does have knockout power, but he’s much more dangerous when he can get the fight to the ground as he averages 4.68 takedowns per 15 minutes. Cutelaba will have to mix in his wrestling if he hopes to have success against Nzechukwu. The 6-foot-5 southpaw averages 10:34 of fight time and holds an advantage in height and reach this weekend. The biggest advantage is in the reach department as Kennedy has nearly ten inches of reach over Cutelaba, an advantage that he will have to use intelligently to keep his back off the ground and Cutelaba at the end of his punches. From a betting perspective, I will be backing Nzechukwu as I expect him to negate the first-round flurry from Cutelaba and find a late finish after Cutelaba fades.
The Bet: Kennedy Nzechukwu ML -175
Cortes-Acosta vs. Sherman Odds
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -210, Chase Sherman +165
A newcomer makes his way onto the main card when Cortes-Acosta faces UFC vet and heavy hitter Sherman. After winning his fight on the Contender Series in emphatic fashion earlier this year, Cortes-Acosta made his debut last month and beat Jared Vanderaa in a three-round slugfest. The former pro baseball pitcher throws a lighting right hand and moves well for a big man, averaging 6.48 significant strikes landed per minute. Although he has limited time in the UFC, the heavyweight has been on notable promotions before, and someone like Sherman is not necessarily a step up in competition. Sherman is 1-4 in his last five, and if he didn’t find a finish or win in his last fight we could be talking about another opponent for Acosta. Sherman has been with the UFC since 2016 and is no stranger to giving the fans what they want when they come to see violence. Sherman is 16-10-0 overall as a pro, with 15 of those wins coming by way of knockout. It doesn’t take a savant to know where this fight is heading as both competitors look for the finish from the sound of the bell. To me, it seems like the UFC couldn’t get rid of Sherman when he fought Vanderaa and now will feed him to the hard-hitting Cortes-Acosta to finish the job and send Sherman into retirement. Sherman is 4-9 in the UFC, and I don’t see any title runs in his future. From a betting perspective I will be backing Acosta to get the job done inside the distance. Even though he didn’t finish Vanderaa and Sherman did, MMA math doesn’t add up many times and I expect Acosta to not have octagon jitters and find a finish.
The Bet: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO +105
Salikhov vs. Fialho Odds
Muslim Saikhov -110, Andre Filhao -110
A potential for fight of the night is set to take place when Salikhov faces Filhao in the second fight on the main card. Two dangerous fighters looking for redemption after a loss in their previous bouts. Filhao was knocked out earlier this year when he fought Jake Matthews at UFC 275, ending his two-fight win streak where he won by KO in the first round in back-to-back fights. Salikhov was stopped for the first time since 2017 in his last fight when he was knocked out by Jingliang Li at the end of the second round, a fight he was winning. The king of kung fu is 18-3-0 overall as a professional and was finished in all three losses. An interesting stat to note is that Salikhov has followed each loss with a five-year win streak. His first loss was in 2012, his second in 2017, his third in 2022. If the trend continues, we may be witnessing the start of another five-year run for Salikhov, and I believe he can win this weekend easily. Filhao is good and if you’ve watched his recent string of fights then you know that he can end and fight in a moment’s notice. Sill, I believe that this weekend he is matched up with a striker in Salikhov that is more technically sound and simply better in all departments but one, power. The biggest reason for me backing Salikhov in this spot is because of the amount of strikes that Filhao absorbs compared to Salikhov. Filhao while dishing out a lot of pain also absorbs 6.65 significant per minute, and if he doesn’t find the knockout early will have issues dealing with the movement and wrestling that Salikhov can mix into his attack. The problem with having so much power is that if you don’t know how to pace yourself then by the second and third round of fights it can be tough to stay technically sound and find yourself in trouble. Filhao wins most of his fights in the first round and the longer this fight goes the more I like Salikhov.
The Bet: Muslim Salikhov ML -110
Maddalena vs. Roberts Odds
Jack Della Maddalena -550, Danny Roberts +440
Kicking off the main card Saturday night is UFC newcomer and the biggest favorite on the card, Della Maddalena. He’ll be facing longtime vet and former Cage Warriors champion Roberts. Della Maddalena is 5-0 in his last five and 12-2-0 overall as a professional and since debuting in the UFC has yet to go past the first round. He made his debut on the Contender Series, where he hit Ange Loosa with everything but the kitchen sink but couldn’t find the finish. Still, he impressed Dana White enough to get a contract and made a big splash, knocking out Pete Rodriguez in his debut at UFC 270. He then made another splash when he knocked out his toughest opponent to date, Ramazan Emeev, with a body shot to the liver. A lot of questions were answered against Emeev, who expected to have his way on the ground but had no luck, as Della Maddalena showed good defensive grappling and IQ when he was in bad spots. He averages 8.24 significant strikes landed per minute, and although it is a small sample size, one thing is sure, he has power and if he can connect cleanly he can put anyone in the division to sleep. From a betting perspective, this line is juiced to high heaven, so for that reason I went with a prop to get better return on investment. I expect Roberts to have experience in the octagon considering he’s been with the UFC since 2015, but considering he’s been stopped in his last two fights, I don’t think the 35-year-old vet will be able to handle Jack Della Maddalena.
The Bet: Jack Della Maddalena in Round 1 or 2 -175
Prelims
Johnson vs. Zhumagulov Odds
Charles Johnson -165, Zhalgas Zhumagulov +140
In the feature prelim of the night, Johnson makes his second appearance in the octagon after making his debut earlier this year in London on short notice against Muhammad Mokaev. This time with a full camp and similar style opponent, the Philly native looks to get his first win as a UFC professional against the always-challenging Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov presents many of the same problems that Mokaev presented in terms of the wrestling, the difference being that Zhumagulov doesn’t have the same Jiujitsu prowess and control like Mokaev but can still take the fight there if he needs to. Unlike Mokaev, he likes to strike and if given the opportunity rather end the fight on his feet and doesn’t mind taking a punch to dish out some damage of his own. In this match up though, Zhalgas will have to find a way inside to connect strikes as he is the shorter man by four inches and lacks four inches of reach compared to Johnson. Johnson was able to survive what everyone assumed would be a sure finish when he fought Mokaev and found success with his strikes briefly. For that reason, I believe that he will be able to fend off Zhumagulovs. takedown attempts and keep this fight standing where he can use his Muay Thai and heavy hands to get a win.
The Bet: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO or decision -145
Johns vs. Morales Odds
Miles Johns -170, Vince Morales +145
Another exciting matchup takes place on the prelims when Johns faces Morales in the bantamweight division. Johns is 12-2-0 overall as a pro and 3-2 as a pro in the UFC. He has a good wrestling base and a rifle for a right hand, and fights out of the famous Fortis MMA. Johns averages 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 2.90 significant strikes per minute. He has really good defense and defends 69% of strikes thrown his way while attempting 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes. If Johns wrestled more than I think, he’d be more successful as a pro, but his power and limited gas tank are the reason why he tends to fade the deeper the fight gets. Morales is a live dog in this spot and if he can limit the right hand of Miles from connecting, I think he can make this fight competitive and find a split decision win in the end. Still, I am not personally sold on either fighter, so for that reason I will lean on their toughness and average fight times of nearly 15 minutes and bet this fight to go the distance.
The Bet: Johns vs. Morales fight goes the distance -140
