NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Giants vs. Lions
Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Jamaal Williams has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (46.0).
- The New York Giants defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.24 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
