Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-105) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 43.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to total 15.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has garnered 60.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Nick Chubb has run for substantially more yards per game (101.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).

Cons

The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 109 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards