Randle Roundup: NBA Betting Trends of the Week (11/18)

It’s been a successful start to the season for the Roundup, as we have correctly identified several key NBA trends that should help with your NBA side, total, and prop wagering. Last week we correctly marked the scalding hot play of Jayson Tatum (29.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG last three games), Al Horford’s increase rebounding production (11 RPG last two games), Darius Garland’s continued generosity (8-plus assists in five of last seven contests), and the usage increase for Jamal Murray (22-plus points in last two games, 17 of more FGAs in four of last five matchups).

Here are a few betting nuggets from seven more NBA teams as you place your side, total and prop bets for the upcoming week.

Detroit Pistons

With center Isaiah Stewart (toe) out 2-3 weeks, look for the recently returned Marvin Bagley to see increased opportunities. Bagley recently returned from a knee injury and posted 16 points and five rebounds in just 29 against Toronto Monday. He was a huge factor for Detroit last March, posting six games of 18-plus points and seven games of at least 8 rebounds. Bagley struggled with massive foul trouble in Thursday’s game, but still hit his rebounds (7.5) prop in just 23 minutes.
There could also be more minutes for rookie center Jalen Duren. He has seen a consistent 20 minutes per game over the first two months and is averaging 8.0 RPG in the last five games. Duren’s rebound prop on Thursday was 6.5, and he finished with nine total boards in just 25 minutes.
Point guard Cade Cunningham remains out for the next four games with a shin injury. Killian Hayes started at point guard against the Clippers but managed only five points with five fouls. Hayes should improve, but Cunningham’s usage could transfer to rookie Jaden Ivey. Over the last three games, Ivey is averaging 21 PPG and 5.3 APG, both of which are substantially higher than his seasonal average.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors fell to 0-8 on the road for the first time since the 1989-1990 season. The struggles have fallen on multiple shoulders, but Stephen Curry is free of blame. Curry is averaging 34.6 PPG this month and has posted 40 or more points in three of the last five games.
Golden State has also started to increase Klay Thompson’s role, which is critical to ending their road losing streak. His minutes per game have risen from 25 MPG to 32.3 MPG in November, while raising his average 5.5 points per game. The Warriors have also made a concerted effort to get Thompson’s more 3P attempts. In October, Thompson posted 2.3 3PM on 8.2 3PA. In November, Thompson has averaged 4.0 3PM and 11.0 3PA.

Houston Rockets

Houston has started to go into tank mode, losing nine of their last 11 matchups. Their offense has been led by their backcourt of Kevin Porter and Jalen Green, both of which are averaging almost 35 MPG.
Porter’s per-game averages are down this month, seeing a three-point decrease, and a massive increase in his turnovers per game to 4.9.
The 20-year-old Green’s production is actually on the rise. He has hit at least 3 shots from beyond the arc in five of his last seven games and has raised his PPG average over five points this month. One of my most profitable props has been the over on Green’s assists per game, which continues to post at plus-money at 3.5 assists. He has hit this number in four consecutive contests.

Indiana Pacers

Indiana has a winning record for the first time this season, sitting at 7-6 after winning four of their last five games. Guard Tyrese Haliburton has enjoyed the breakout season most had predicted, averaging 20.6 PPG and 10.4 APG, while shooting 42.4% from deep on over seven attempts per contest.
Rookie Bennedict Mathurin is the current favorite for Rookie of the Year, averaging 20 PPG while shooting a blistering 45.5% from 3P. He has yet to start a game this season, but third on the team with 27.6 MPG. Mathurin’s 3PM prop is always at 2.5 and is highly juiced to the over. The Indiana rookie has beat that number in three of his last five contests, and four of his last seven games.
Center Myles Turner has fully recovered from an ankle injury and is posting career highs across the board. In just eight games this season, Turner is tallying 18.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG and 3.1 BPG. Turner is also at 37.9% from 3P range, and a career-best 84.6% from the free-throw line.

Los Angeles Clippers

All-Star Kawhi Leonard continues to manage his recovery from knee surgery, having only played in three games this year. This has led to elite production from Paul George, who is averaging 25.2 PPG in the month of November. George is seeing over two minutes more per game this month but is scoring with much more efficiency. His 3P accuracy has skyrocketed from 31.1% in October to 38.2% through nine games this month.
Guard Reggie Jackson has seen a huge decrease in production this season, despite playing just two minutes less per game. Jackson has started all 16 games but has experienced a 5.7-point drop in his per-game scoring, and 6.5 fewer shot attempts per game. Jackson’s consistency is at an all-time low, with single-digit scoring in exactly eight of the team’s 16 contests. His points prop has adjusted as well, hovering around 11.5 per game with even juice on both sides.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers continue to struggle, sitting at just 3-10 overall and near the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Lost in the struggles has been the superb performance of forward Anthony Davis. In the month of November, Davis is posting 24.6 PPG and 11.6 RPG while shooting 80% from the free-throw line.
LeBron James could return Friday from an adductor strain, which could cut into Davis’ production. The biggest factor could be the season debut for both guard Dennis Schroder and forward Thomas Bryant. Both recovered from thumb surgery and will have an immediate impact on Davis’ shots and playing time. I am fading the Lakers big man tonight and in the immediate future.
Surprising Stat of the Day: The Lakers rank last as a team in 3P% at 30.7%. However, guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ranks first in the league in 3P accuracy (53.3%, minimum 40 3PA).

Memphis Grizzlies

With high-scoring guard Desmond Bane out 2-3 weeks with a toe injury, there are certainly scoring opportunities available in Memphis. While Ja Morant will certainly see more usage, Bane’s absence has coincided with the return of forward Jaren Jackson, who returned from a stress fracture in his foot. Jackson posted seven points and six rebounds in 25 minutes, while hosting seven shots from deep (missing all seven). The opportunities will be there for Jackson, as the only other consistent scoring options are Morant and the streaky Dillon Brooks. Still only 23 years old, Jackson is coming off a superb postseason, highlighted by 19 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 38.6% from 3P range against the Warriors.
I have always marveled at Brandon Clarke’s upside, and he continues to perform when given the chance. Clarke saw 33 minutes (season-high) in Tuesday’s loss at New Orleans, posting 15 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks. While Steven Adams continues to be entrenched as the starting center, Clarke continues to be a much better production option on a per-minute basis. I am eyeing his Points + Rebounds + Assists prop tonight, which is hovering around 18.5 with even juice on both sides.