Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Browns
Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 228.5 (-115) after it opened @ 201.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Jacoby Brissett has thrown for many more yards per game (234.0) this season than he did last season (125.0).
- Jacoby Brissett’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.2% to 65.6%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per snap.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, allowing 7.33 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
232
Passing Yards
232
Passing Yards
