Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+110) after it opened @ 47.5 (+100).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 13.0 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Najee Harris has rushed for many fewer yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.45 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
