Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 68.5 (-118).

Pros

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos as the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Javonte Williams is expected by the predictive model to place in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 16.9 rush attempts.
Javonte Williams has been given 54.8% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
With an outstanding rate of 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Javonte Williams has been as one of the leading running backs in the league this year.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to call just 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a measly 53.7 per game on average).
Javonte Williams’s rushing efficiency (3.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile when it comes to RBs).
The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, yielding just 3.83 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards