Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aidan O'Connell from EV Insight

Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards

Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The model projects the Raiders to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% pass rate.
The model projects the Raiders to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami’s collection of safeties has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards