Pros
- This game’s spread indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The projections expect James Cook to accrue 12.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
- James Cook has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this season (50.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
- This year, the anemic New York Jets run defense has given up a massive 135.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 6th-most in football.
Cons
- At the moment, the 4th-least run-heavy team in the league (32.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bills.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 125.7 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
- The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
- When talking about opening holes for runners (and the significance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
- James Cook’s 5.0 adjusted yards per carry this season represents a noteable decrease in his running talent over last season’s 5.8 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards