Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Lions being a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 62.0 per game on average).
- Among all RBs, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 78th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 43.3% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
- The Detroit O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has generated 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (92nd percentile).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- This year, the feeble Chicago Bears run defense has been torched for a massive 3.44 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 32nd-biggest rate in the NFL.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Chicago’s LB corps has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
