Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+107/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+107) after it opened @ 56.5 (-112).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to run on 44.3% of their downs: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to garner 18.1 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry is positioned as one of the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.19 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The model projects the Titans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- This year, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has surrendered a measly 90.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 6th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
