NFL

Bets

November 15, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+107/-139).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+107) after it opened @ 56.5 (-112).

Pros

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to run on 44.3% of their downs: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to garner 18.1 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry is positioned as one of the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.19 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Cons

The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
The model projects the Titans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
This year, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has surrendered a measly 90.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 6th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards