Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 102.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 102.5 (-135) after it opened @ 98.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 23.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has garnered 83.3% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has generated 101.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (100th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.03 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.3 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
103
Rushing Yards