Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trey McBrideReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-145) after it opened @ 53.5 (-119).
Pros
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
- The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- Trey McBride has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
- The Texans defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (63.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
