Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Trey McBride from EV Insight

Trey McBrideReceiving Yards

Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-145) after it opened @ 53.5 (-119).

Pros

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
Trey McBride has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
The Texans defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (63.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards