Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 62.0 per game on average).
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- The projections expect Sam LaPorta to total 6.8 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- With an impressive 21.4% Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta stands as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Lions being a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Sam LaPorta comes in as one of the weakest TEs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.
- The Bears pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
