Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-105) after it opened @ 17.5 (-113).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Logan Thomas has accrued a colossal 29.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.
The Houston Texans defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) to TEs this year.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 57.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards